Week 16 Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars Take On Reeling Tennessee Titans
Friday, December 23, 2011
by Aengus Moorehead
Analysis:
The Tennessee Titans blew a monumental opportunity at a chance to grab an AFC wild card spot when they inexplicably fell to the previously winless Indianapolis Colts. Matt Hasselbeck decided to play despite an injured calf and proved to be terrible, surrendering his duties to rookie Jake Locker in the fourth quarter. The Titans no longer control their own destiny in their quest for a playoff spot and will need plenty of help.
The first thing they need to do is take care of the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars on Saturday. This would seem to be a favorable matchup for Tennessee, but then so was Indianapolis. The Jaguars followed up a 41-14 win in Week 14 with a 41-14 loss last Sunday and have dropped four of their last five games.
Tennessee is locked in at second place in the division behind the already- clinched Houston Texans. It stands eighth overall in the conference standings, one game and an all-important two slots behind the No. 6 New York Jets, who now hold the final Wild Card playoff position with two games remaining.
Tennessee finishes its season next week at Houston, which is already playing a third-stringer at quarterback thanks to injuries and could be in the position to rest other key players for the finale pending its own seeding position after this weekend.
Also working in the Titans' favor is the fact that the Jaguars have won just once in seven road games this season and were gashed for 41 points -- including 280 passing yards and three touchdowns through the air -- last week at Atlanta.
It was interim head coach Mel Tucker's third game since taking over for the fired Jack Del Rio on Nov. 29.
So far with Tucker at the helm, Jacksonville has lost by a 38-14 count at home to San Diego, posted a 41-14 rout over slumping Tampa Bay and lost by 27 to the Falcons in Georgia.
Hasselbeck, who exited a Dec. 11 game against New Orleans with a strained left calf and was questionable before getting the start against the Colts, completed 27-of-40 passes for 223 yards and two interceptions in last week's loss. He's thrown for 691 yards with one touchdown and five interceptions in his last five starts.
Rookie Jake Locker impressed in the veteran's absence against New Orleans two weeks ago, then played the fourth quarter of last Sunday's game and completed 11-of-16 throws for 108 yards and a touchdown. He has 530 yards, four touchdown passes and no turnovers in his last three games.
But as of right now, Tennessee head coach Mike Munchak is leaning on experience over momentum.
Tennessee comes in with an 18-15 lead in its overall regular-season series with Jacksonville, but the Jaguars did edge the Titans by a 16-14 count at EverBank Field in the 2011 season opener.
Jacksonville has lost in its trip to Nashville in each of the past three years, however, with the most recent defeat a 30-3 shellacking during Week 6 of the 2010 campaign, but was able to avenge that setback with a 17-6 home triumph later that year. The Jaguars' last victory at LP Field occurred in 2007, a 28-13 decision, and they'll be aiming for their first home-and-sweep of Tennessee since 2005.
These teams have also met one time before in the playoffs, with Tennessee scoring a 33-14 road win over the Jags in the 1999 AFC Championship.
Munchak dropped his only prior meeting with Jacksonville as a head coach with the Week 1 loss, while Tucker will be opposing both the Titans and Munchak for the first time in his present position.
Time & Venue:
- 1:00 PM ET, Saturday, December 24, 2011. LP Field, Nashville, Tennessee
Last Week's results:
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+11) loses to host Atlanta Falcons 41-14.
- Tennessee Titans (-6.5) loses to host Indianapolis Colts 27-13.
Last week's ATS:
- Underdog Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10) loses and does not cover
- Favourite Tennessee Titans (7-7) loses outright.
NFL Football Odds: Titans -7.5, O/U: 40.
Next up:
- Jacksonville home to Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, January 1
- Tennessee at Houston Texans, Sunday, January 1
Jacksonville has put three-fourths of its starting secondary on injured reserve and has a total of 23 players on IR and out for the season. The lone bright spot is running back Maurice Jones-Drew, who is at 1,334 yards already – 57 yards shy of the career high he set in 2009-10. The Pro Bowl runner is the only thing keeping the pressure off rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert. The No. 10 overall pick was 12 of 22 for 141 yards, one touchdown and one interception while being sacked five times and losing a pair of fumble last week.
The Titans have taken a sizable step back from their playoff standing of a week ago, but they're still a game out of the last Wild Card spot with two to play. That alone ought to make sure the intensity level doesn't suffer against a second straight subpar opponent.
Tennessee's RB Chris Johnson and Jones-Drew are two of the game's premier backs, though they don't always get a chance on the biggest stages. The pair has 2,264 combined rushing yards this season and have become rivals through the series of two annual meetings. Whichever team better contains the standout runner on the other side increases its chances at getting a victory.
Tucker was a dud in his first game as interim head coach and a stud in his second, then unfortunately returned to dud status in outing No. 3. The odds are against him anyway, but he'll need a strong finish to have any reasonable hope at retaining the sideline gig, which could enhance the Jaguars' motivation.
Munchak said that Hasselbeck would be the starter on Saturday despite being pulled against the Colts. Locker, who went 11 of 16 for 108 yards in limited duty last week, has looked strong in three appearances. The Titans are tied with Oakland and San Diego, one game behind the New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals for the final AFC playoff spot. Johnson has been held out of practice with a sore ankle but is expected to play Saturday.
Jones-Drew needs two rushing touchdowns to pass Fred Taylor (62) for the most in Jacksonville history.
Johnson needs 70 yards for his fourth straight 1,000-yard season.
Jacksonville won the first meeting 16-14 in Week 1 and has taken three of the last five.
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games when playing Jacksonville The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tennessee Jacksonville is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games on the road Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
At 7-7 and coming off a loss to the league's last winless team, the Titans are hardly a safe bet against anyone. That said, they're at home and playing for their playoff lives. And when push comes to shove, they do have a talent advantage at most positions. It may not be pretty, but expect either Hasselbeck or Locker and Johnson to make at least one more big play than their visitors.
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NFL Football Pick: Take Titans.
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atlanta falcons - blaine gabbert - chris johnson - cincinnati bengals - everbank field - houston texans - indianapolis colts - jacksonville jaguars - jake locker - lp field
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